General Forecast - Bearish wave structures for US Bonds supporting rise in yields which supports higher stocks
Commodities – Base metals continue higher as forecasted. Precious metals retrace high as USD retraces lower. The move up in precious metals is a corrective rally according to the Elliott wave count as Wave iv to 1400 once completed expect further downside and new lows
Forex – The retracement in USD creates the Wave (iv) corrective rally for the EURUSD from 1.28 to 12930 estimate and the AUDSUD rally from 0.97 as a retest to 1.00 once completed further downside is expected into new lows
Indices – Most Global Indices can expect a small retracement this week before further upside.
Stocks – Continuing long with base metals resources while copper climbs higher. Holding long in US banks, as their wave structures are displaying an unfolding Elliott impulse wave higher
Precious Metals
US Spot Gold 1383
TradingLevels 1400 resistance as the wave four corrective rally.
Elliott Wave: The Wave (iv) corrective bounce mentioned yesterday as reached its target, that is the fourth wave of one lesser degree at 1392 and the 38.2% is 1391, however the 1400 is the main story as resistance and the target, even though I said 1380 yesterday, the move was quicker stronger than I had anticipated. One of the obvious points here is to see if the 1400 holds as the resistance. Wave four are normally sideways and complicated rather than sharp and swift like this. If corrective and this is the wave four then we should see move sideways development in the pattern.
Once Wave (iv) is completed, then new lows should occur below the last low 1340 as Wave (v). Apart from the height of Wave (iv) the other question is the further development of Wave (iv) as a pattern
Strategy: The Wave (iv) is not completed while its above SG2 1365|1372|1380 with the 1372 being the important pivot. The wave structure on the five minute chart appears to suggest another high after testing support on 1380.
US Spot Silver 2267
Technical Analysis: Tested support on 2300 creates a positive long bias for trades and the swift move up appears like the structure of an impulse wave. However in the first instance we should treat the move up as a corrective rally and now that the main strength of the trend is completed the move should tire out and develop and ending pattern, once the end has developed we can then see it confirm as corrective or impulsive. This is a retest of the mediumlevel ML25|2500 however the supply starts at 2300 – 2400 to pin the firth leg in the wave four corrective pattern.
Oil WTI 97.00
Technical Analysis: A second support on 95.00 as it has done is a sign of strength and therefore sets the target at 100, of course the 98 is prof taking and can rock the boat..
After the corrective pattern across 97.00 scale in long through SG1 of 97 with the next target at 98.00 (mTL8 – Profit taking number) where we can expect a larger corrective pattern before moving to the major tradinglevel TL1|100 Brent already has support on TL1|100 for long trades
The 97.00 is a trend line resistance on the daily chart.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.33+
US Nickel: Last: 6.80+
US Zinc: Last: 0.8255+
US Aluminium Last: 0.8210+
US Copper CFD 335
Following on from yesterday’s view of further upside; there is now tested support on top of minor group1 mTL3|3.30 the next confirmation is creating a new high about 339 and to do that support on the midpoint 5 that is 335 would see the market at 338 and then 340, support on 340 after a abc correction would see the market at 350 (mTL5) So you know the price points for this market to fail at or not which will be helpful when trading the materials sector.
Forex
US Dollar CFD 83.85
TradingLevels: The corrective pattern I was expecting at 85 is occurring at 8450, which makes the 8350 and 8330 the new supports and should be tested in the next session.
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) retracement, the 38.2% target is 83.45 once completed and could be time consuming, should see new highs to 85.00 for a larger corrective pattern. These series of waves four and fives of degrees will also show up in the lows for the Euro and precious metals
EURUSD 1.2895
TradingLevels: The bounce at 1.28 is in play as expected. Corrective rally resistance 129 - 12930
Elliott Wave: Wave four rally off 1.28 to 12930 the fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Trading Strategies: Traders should have covered shorts based on last comments in this section. The move up is in fives waves, that means a correction at 1.29 – 12930 zone and then another five waves up. The market can move to 12950 if support is found on 1.29. Short term traders can trade long off the 1.29 as tested support.
AUDUSD 0.9810 11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
TradingLevels: This rally is an attempt to retest TL1|1.00 as it has not been tested as resistance yet. It may not reach 1.00 however we should be mindful of market psychology and process.
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv) rally the 38.2% retracement 9945
Trading Strategies: Long with stops under 9750, once 9830 becomes the support lift stop under 9772, once the 9850 is the support move stops to 9826,with the 9872 as the target.
Tested support on 98 creates longs scaling through group1 9810|9820|9830 support on top of group1 9830 creates the midpoint 9850 as the target.
Indices
DJI CFD 15,339
TradingLevels: The top of minor group1 15,300 is being tested as support. The support is SG2 15,272 as long as the market has 15,200 as support, which is the minor level pivot with in group2 the structure of the trend up remains in tack. The 15,200 as resistance creates the 15,000 as the target. Support on 15,300 creates the 15,500 target
Elliott Wave: Wave v high 15,390 expect two sessions of corrective price action
Trading Strategies: Allow the market time to corrective back into 15,300 – 15,272 zone
S&P500 CFD 1666
TradingLevels: The 1672 as the next target is in place and now as resistance. While the market is inside of SG2 1665|1672|1680 its support, however if the market drops out of SG2 1665 then the market can move back to 1650.
Elliott Wave: Wave v of (iii) at 1672
Trading Strategies: If the 1672 become the support trade long, if not the market can move back to 1650
FTSE 100 CFD 6746
TradingLevels: The 6800 is the mTL8 profit taking target. Intraday the market would require 6772 as the support to get there, you can also use the 6750 midpoint as support of resistance to base the trade direction from..
Elliott Wave: Expecting Wave (iv) correction across 6700
DAX CFD 8439
TradingLevels: Intraday, if the 8420 becomes the resistance the trend is bearish
Shanghai Comp 2300
Expect a corrective pattern across 2300 then support then further upside
ASX 200 CFD 5219
TradingLevels: The corrective price action continues across the minorlevel pivot mTL2|5200 as a wave four. The US & UK indices are about to correct into a Wave (iv) and the Shanghai is to correct across 2300. This will create even more corrective price action for the ASX200.
The positive news is that the 5200 is currently the support and while this is the case the market is supported, the secondary support now is the SG2 5180|5172|1565
Elliott Wave: Wave (iv)
Day Trading Strategy: If 5200 support is broken then expect short term bearishness as Wave (iv) continues across 5200. If and when the 5230 develops support trade long otherwise expect supports to be tested.
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